Do Nosotros Fifty-Fifty Know If The Gig Economic Scheme Is Growing?

The concept of the "gig economy" clearly captures something real, but it tin last difficult to stair out define inwards the statistical sense that brings joy to my heart. For example, it clearly refers to those who movement for Uber in addition to Lyft. But does it elevate to a greater extent than broadly to all workers alongside "alternative operate arrangements," who are hired for a short-term labor alongside no serious expectation that it volition move a longer-term job connection? Does it encompass people who obtain jobs through a temp way in addition to operate for a serial of employers, for example?

Conventional labor statistics don't pull these kinds of distinctions rattling clearly, in addition to so researchers select looked for clues inwards less traditional kinds of data. The results are less clear-cut than i mightiness like.

For example, dorsum inwards 2015 2 prominent labor economists, Lawrence Katz in addition to Alan Krueger, noted that the park tool for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inwards looking at option in addition to nonstandards operate arrangements is called the Contingent Work Survey (CWS). But this survey has only been carried out occasionally, in addition to inwards fact had non been done since 2005. So Katz in addition to Krueger tried to send out a survey inwards Fall 2015, attaching the questions to a nationally representative survey regularly done past times the RAND think-tanks called the American Life Panel.

The results were striking. As I noted at the time, they found:

[T]he per centum of workers engaged inwards option operate arrangements – defined equally temporary aid way workers, on-call workers, contract companionship workers, in addition to independent contractors or freelancers – rose from 10.1 percent inwards Feb 2005 to 15.8 percent inwards belatedly 2015. ... We farther observe that most 0.5 percent of workers dot that they are working through an online intermediary, such equally Uber or Task Rabbit ... Thus, the online gig workforce is relatively small-scale compared to other forms of option operate arrangements, although it is growing rattling rapidly  ... H5N1 striking implication of these estimates is that all of the cyberspace job growth inwards the U.S. economic scheme from 2005 to 2015 appears to select occurred inwards option operate arrangements.

Well, Katz in addition to Krueger select at nowadays revisited the bailiwick 4 years later, in addition to their latest reuslts propose that the issue of workers inwards option jobs genuinely has non been growing at all. The to a greater extent than recent newspaper is "Understanding Trends inwards Alternative Work Arrangements inwards the United States," published equally a working newspaper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (#25425, Jan 2019, an ungated version is here).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did larn funding to produce a follow-up of the official Contingent Workers Survey inwards May 2017. They write: "The ... findings were released inwards June 2018 in addition to indicate, inwards seeming contrast to our before findings ... a slight spend upward inwards the incidence inwards option operate arrangements from 10.7 percent inwards 2005 to 10.1 percent inwards 2017 ..."

 What's going on here? Part of the respond seems to last that the labor marketplace pose was improving from 2015 to 2017, in addition to and so to a greater extent than people moved into traditional jobs. Other differences select to produce alongside the extent to which surveys were answered past times workers directly, or past times others inwards the family, in addition to whether the 2015 survey for only about argue ended upward alongside an oversample of people belongings multiple jobs. But bottom line, the electrical current persuasion is that the issue of option workers may select risen during the Great Recession in addition to its aftermath, but has since declined dorsum to most where it was before the recession.

Anat Bracha in addition to Mary A. Burke provide only about additional perspective inwards "The Ups in addition to Downs of the Gig Economy, 2015–2017," written equally a working newspaper for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (#18-12, Oct 2018).

The exceptional focus on Bracha in addition to Burke is on information from the Survey of Informal Work Participation (SIWP), which was carried out equally portion of something called the Survey of Consumer Expectations, which is done on a monthly dry soil past times the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They added questions most the extent of "paid informal operate or side jobs," in addition to whether "websites and/or mobile platforms were used inwards finding and/or performing such work." The survey was non genuinely intended to include professional person freelancers or temp workers, but equally alongside whatsoever survey, it's non ever obvious how respondents translate the questions. They find:

Considering either our broader or narrower concept of informal work, nosotros observe that participation rates did non modify significantly on cyberspace betwixt 2015 in addition to 2017, piece our dot estimates propose that if anything, the participation rates declined during that period. ... Furthermore, conditional on participation inwards the gig economy, betwixt 2015 in addition to 2017 the average hours amid informal workers showed unambiguous declines, in addition to the aggregate amount of informal operate equally measured inwards FTEs also roughshod substantially, piece average earnings amid informal workers were effectively flat. Our composite measures of informal operate would appear to contradict recent pop narratives depicting rapid growth inwards the independent workforce inwards response to structural changes inwards the organisation of work. However, nosotros also observe only about supporting prove for the story of a rising gig economic scheme ...[P]articipation rates increased across our surveys for selected technology-enabled jobs such equally ridesharing in addition to online tasks, in addition to the average ridesharing hours increased dramatically amid drivers, although inwards absolute price these technology-enabled jobs silent trace of piece of work concern human relationship for only a rattling small-scale segment of the US population of household heads.

In to a greater extent than detailed analysis, they also observe hints that the improving labor marketplace pose from 2015-2017 was tending to  concur downward the amount of informal work. But their bottom trace is that piece ride-sharing is way up, along alongside AirBnB in addition to diverse non-labor income-earning opportunities, overall informal operate is non on the rise.

Other authors select also institute prove that piece participation inwards ride-sharing jobs is way up, the prove for to a greater extent than job inwards other parts of the gig economic scheme is weak. For example, Katharine G. Abraham, John C. Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky James R. Spletzer presented "The Rise of the Gig Economy:Fact or Fiction?" at the annual meetings of the American Economic Association inwards early on Jan 2019. They dot out that only about of the primary possible information sources on gig economic scheme operate are non telling the same story: specifically, the surveys of workers cast sources similar the Current Population Survey aren't telling the same story equally income taxation information most self-employment. They write:

This newspaper provides an overview of what nosotros know in addition to don’t know most the hypothesized surge inwards the gig economy. There has been phenomenal growth, confirmed past times at to the lowest degree iii independent information sources, inwards the issue of self-employed rider drivers since 2013. The stride of this growth illustrates how chop-chop novel applied scientific discipline tin send on the labor market. Outside of this sector, however, the painting demo is considerably murkier. Furthermore, ... in that location has been a growing discrepancy betwixt self-employment rates equally measured inwards essence household surveys such equally the Current Population Survey (CPS) versus self-employment rates equally measured inwards taxation data. Over the past times decade, the old demo a slight spend upward whereas the latter demo a notable increase. CPS information also select non captured the surge inwards rider driver self-employment that is evident inwards other data. These facts propose that, to empathise the gig economy, the CPS in addition to other essence household surveys volition demand to last augmented past times other types of data

Bracha in addition to Burke from the Boston Fed brand a similar dot most information on option operate arrangements from self-employment reported on income taxes. They write:

According to a few dissimilar studies, the filing of taxation forms indicating self-employment, such equally the Schedule C, increased significantly inwards recent decades (Jackson, Looney, in addition to Ramnath 2017, Katz in addition to Krueger 2016, in addition to Abraham et al. 2018), in addition to i study institute that the trends were driven past times an increment inwards independent labor rather than trace of piece of work concern ownership (Jackson, Looney, in addition to Ramnath 2017). Likewise, an analysis past times Dourado in addition to Koopman (2015) of 1099-MISC forms, which are used to study income received exterior of traditional job relationships, indicates an escalation inwards such filings from 2000 to 2015.

One of the prominent studies of what taxation information tin state us on the extent of self-employment is "The Rise of Alternative Work Arrangements: Evidence andImplications for Tax Filing in addition to Benefit Coverage," past times Emilie Jackson, Adam Looney, in addition to Shanthi Ramnath written equally a working newspaper for the Office of Tax Analysis at the US Department of the Treasury (#114, Jan 2017). They greenback that the category of self-employment is quite broad. However, it is also rising fast, in addition to many of the gains inwards self-employment seem to last amid those who select goose egg inwards trace of piece of work concern expenses--that is, they are only providing labor. They write (footnotes omitted):

In 2014, 24.9 1000000 individuals filed returns reporting the performance of a nonfarm sole proprietorship in addition to 16.8 1000000 earned a net turn a profit (and paid self-employment tax) from those activities, representing a 34 percent in addition to 32 percent increase, respectively, from their levels inwards 2001. The almost 17 1000000 self-employed workers represented 12 percent of all taxation filers alongside earnings. ... Self-employed individuals engage inwards a broad diversity of economical activities ranging from operating businesses similar restaurants, constabulary offices, or partnerships; providing contract or consulting labor; earning platform-based or “gig economy” income; to theatre cleaning in addition to babysitting services. Many earn income from both payoff in addition to self-employment. ... Looking at trends over time, nosotros observe that essentially all of the increment inwards self-employment is due to increases inwards sole proprietors who select picayune or no business-related deductions, in addition to who hence appear to almost alone render labor services (i.e. the contractors or misclassified workers). In contrast, the portion of filers that were small-scale trace of piece of work concern owners was essentially unchanged.

It seems clear that to a greater extent than people are receiving income in addition to taxation from activities that are exterior traditional jobs. But other than ride-sharing jobs, only how to characterize these jobs remains murky, in addition to the interrogation of what rules in addition to regulations mightiness apply to such income-earning activities remains murky, too.  It feels to me equally if a shift is happening inwards US labor markets, inwards which the expectation of a long-term bond betwixt employers in addition to employees has declined on both sides. But I don't yet experience that I empathise the details of this shift.